Jesús Luzardo
CWS @ PHI · 2026-06-05
Elite Ace
Elite Ace
SALCI measures strikeout probability. 80+ = strong over play. Floor-minus-2 rule enforced.
Strikeout Projection
K Projection
6.5597.0
Book line: 6.5Floor 5 — no edge
Score Breakdown
Arsenal
3852%
Matchup
6830%
Workload
4410%
Location
438%
Stuff+120
Location+88
CSW%28.7%
Wtd Whiff%27.4%
Pitcher Archetype
SWING-MISS
ELITE
CONTACT
TWO-STRIKE
PutAway% →
Whiff% ↑
Balanced
Average whiff and put-away metrics — moderate strikeout projection.
Wtd Whiff% 27.4%PutAway% 16.7%
K-Line Probability
| K Target | Probability | Bar |
|---|---|---|
| 5+ Ks | 82.8% | |
| 6+ Ks | 70.1% | |
| 7+ KsBOOK | 55.2% | |
| 8+ Ks | 40.3% |
λ = 7.01 expected Ks · Poisson model · Floor & ceiling from Monte Carlo
Pitch Arsenal
Last 30 days · Statcast| Pitch | % | MPH | Whiff% | PutAway% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 35% | 86.1 | 41.9% | 17.6% |
| Four-Seamer | 30% | 97.0 | 8.5% | 11.3% |
| Changeup | 24% | 86.1 | 41.3% | 20.5% |
| Sinker | 12% | 95.4 | 4.2% | 0.0% |
Wtd Whiff% 27.4%Overall PutAway%
Last 3 Starts
| Date | Opp | IP | K | H | ER | BB | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30 | Dodgers | 5.1 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 95 |
| May 25 | Padres | 6.0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 104 |
| May 19 | Reds | 6.0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 95 |
Share Card
SALCI
Strikeout Analytics
86
S · Elite Ace
Jesús Luzardo
CWS @ PHI
FLOOR
5
EXPECTED
7.0
CEILING
9
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