Ryan Weathers
BOS @ NYY · 2026-06-05
Elite Ace
Elite Ace
SALCI measures strikeout probability. 80+ = strong over play. Floor-minus-2 rule enforced.
Strikeout Projection
K Projection
6.56108.1
Book line: 6.5Floor 6 — no edge
Score Breakdown
Arsenal
3252%
Matchup
6430%
Workload
4910%
Location
428%
Stuff+115
Location+86
CSW%29.5%
Wtd Whiff%25.6%
Pitcher Archetype
SWING-MISS
ELITE
CONTACT
TWO-STRIKE
PutAway% →
Whiff% ↑
Balanced
Average whiff and put-away metrics — moderate strikeout projection.
Wtd Whiff% 25.6%PutAway% 27.5%
K-Line Probability
| K Target | Probability | Bar |
|---|---|---|
| 6+ Ks | 81.8% | |
| 7+ KsBOOK | 69.9% | |
| 8+ Ks | 56.1% | |
| 9+ Ks | 42.1% |
λ = 8.10 expected Ks · Poisson model · Floor & ceiling from Monte Carlo
Pitch Arsenal
Last 30 days · Statcast| Pitch | % | MPH | Whiff% | PutAway% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 24% | 95.0 | 15.0% | 18.8% |
| Sinker | 24% | 93.5 | 4.7% | 12.5% |
| Changeup | 24% | 85.1 | 42.3% | 41.4% |
| Sweeper | 19% | 80.3 | 38.1% | 21.4% |
Last 3 Starts
| Date | Opp | IP | K | H | ER | BB | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30 | Athletics | 6.2 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 107 |
| May 24 | Rays | 7.0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 95 |
| May 18 | Jays | 5.1 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 90 |
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SALCI
Strikeout Analytics
95
S · Elite Ace
Ryan Weathers
BOS @ NYY
FLOOR
6
EXPECTED
8.1
CEILING
10
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