Christian Scott
NYM @ SD · 2026-06-05
Elite Ace
Elite Ace
SALCI measures strikeout probability. 80+ = strong over play. Floor-minus-2 rule enforced.
Strikeout Projection
K Projection
5.5697.4
Book line: 5.5Floor 6 — no edge
Score Breakdown
Arsenal
1852%
Matchup
6730%
Workload
3410%
Location
418%
Stuff+105
Location+81
CSW%24.8%
Wtd Whiff%21.5%
Pitcher Archetype
SWING-MISS
ELITE
CONTACT
TWO-STRIKE
PutAway% →
Whiff% ↑
Contact Inducer
Below-average whiff and put-away rates — avoid for strikeout props.
Wtd Whiff% 21.5%PutAway% 21.2%
K-Line Probability
| K Target | Probability | Bar |
|---|---|---|
| 6+ KsBOOK | 74.6% | |
| 7+ Ks | 60.7% | |
| 8+ Ks | 45.9% | |
| 9+ Ks | 32.3% |
λ = 7.39 expected Ks · Poisson model · Floor & ceiling from Monte Carlo
Pitch Arsenal
Last 30 days · Statcast| Pitch | % | MPH | Whiff% | PutAway% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 51% | 95.4 | 21.2% | 17.2% |
| Sweeper | 23% | 81.1 | 30.2% | 30.8% |
| Cutter | 17% | 89.2 | 14.0% | 23.5% |
| Splitter | 5% | 83.8 | 11.1% | 0.0% |
Wtd Whiff% 21.5%Overall PutAway%
Last 3 Starts
| Date | Opp | IP | K | H | ER | BB | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30 | Marlins | 5.0 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 96 |
| May 24 | Marlins | 5.2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 94 |
| May 18 | Nationals | 4.0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 81 |
Share Card
SALCI
Strikeout Analytics
92
S · Elite Ace
Christian Scott
NYM @ SD
FLOOR
6
EXPECTED
7.4
CEILING
9
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